European natural gas prices soar, international oil prices fluctuate
The price of natural gas in Europe has soared, setting a new record high; the international oil price fluctuated at a high level, once rushing to a historical high of $130 per barrel, and then fell to less than $100 in a "roller coaster"... Recently, the contradiction between global energy supply and demand has intensified, and energy prices have been high fluctuation.
Affected by geopolitical tensions, increased sanctions, OPEC's production increase and many other factors, international energy prices have recently experienced "roller coaster" fluctuations. As a commodity, the price of energy is mainly determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. Therefore, behind the large fluctuations in global energy prices are actually drastic changes in supply and demand conditions. There are many factors that affect supply and demand, including geopolitics, world economy, extreme weather, incidents, etc. For example, in early 2020, the new crown epidemic swept the world, the world economy shut down, energy demand fell off a cliff, and prices of crude oil and natural gas fell sharply; in 2021, The global economy has begun to recover, driving a rebound in energy demand. Under the influence of many factors such as the lag in production capacity recovery, the prices of oil and gas have rebounded sharply.
Against this background, geopolitical conflicts and energy sanctions have further pushed up international energy prices and exacerbated the "energy shortage" in Europe. The EU is highly dependent on external energy. Although the proportion of renewable energy is increasing, in the past five years, about 57% to 60% of the EU's energy consumption has relied on fossil energy imports. In addition, Europe has implemented a relatively aggressive energy transformation strategy. European countries, mainly represented by Germany, have been promoting energy transformation, and the proportion of renewable energy is at the leading level in the world. However, under the existing technical conditions, the higher the proportion of renewable energy, the worse the stability of energy security, which is determined by the characteristics of renewable energy. Therefore, once emergencies such as extreme weather occur, the energy dilemma in Europe will become prominent.
In the long run, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the international energy and carbon markets will inevitably promote the development of clean energy. However, in the short and medium term, the resistance to the global low-carbon transition will increase. The rebound of coal power and the fall in global carbon prices will boost the growth of carbon emissions. Disrupting the pace of low-carbon transition in some countries. Coal will become an alternative to natural gas in Europe, with some countries restarting decommissioned coal-fired and nuclear power plants. The international competition for natural gas has also driven the spot price of fuel for heating and power plants in Asia and other places to record highs, and some countries have been forced to switch to fuel oil, coal and other high-emission fuels, delaying the transition to green energy. In addition, rising prices of key minerals have pushed up the cost of new energy, and the development cost of clean energy and new energy vehicles has risen significantly, increasing resistance.