Brief: In 2022, with the frequent outbreaks at home and abroad and the increasing global inflationary pressure, China's economy maintained strong resilience and potential under the promotion of steady growth policy. Under the influence of multiple factors at home and abroad, the shock range of the steel market has narrowed, the average price has moved down, and the profits of the steel industry have shrunk obviously. The development of steel enterprises is facing unprecedented difficulties. 2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress. The global economic growth is facing the pressure of slowing down. China's economy will gradually return to the normal growth track in the steady growth policy of expanding domestic demand. The steel industry will still adhere to the green and low-carbon development, and the promotion of "capacity reduction and replacement", "ultra-low emission transformation" and "extreme energy efficiency project" will still restrict the release of steel production, and the decline of steel demand will be somewhat eased, and steel exports will decline slightly; The further downward price of raw materials continues to weaken the market support. Lange Steel Research Center expects that the supply and demand relationship of domestic steel market in 2023 will be better than that of the previous year, and the average price of steel will be higher than that in the second half of 2022. The overall price center is basically the same as that of the whole year of 2022. 』
I. Operation Situation and Industry Review of Domestic Steel Market in 2022
In 2022, China's economy was driven by a package of steady growth policies and continuous policies. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment maintained a high growth level, which led to the recovery of fixed asset investment. However, the weak operation of real estate investment continued to drag down the demand for steel. Steel output continues to show a decreasing trend, and both supply and demand are weak. However, external demand shows certain toughness, and steel exports are expected to maintain the level of last year; The social inventory slowdown slowed down, and the overall level was lower than that of the previous year; The prices of raw materials, such as coke, scrap steel, etc., dropped significantly to reduce the cost of steel production. However, the overall profit of the industry hit a new low in the past 20 years, driven by a more significant downward shift in steel prices.
1.1 Market side: the market volatility has narrowed, and the average price has obviously moved down.
In 2022, due to the complex and changeable foreign economic environment, weak domestic demand and other factors, the domestic steel market showed a downward trend. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Network, as of the end of December 2022, Lange Steel's national comprehensive steel price index was 4,337 RMB (ton price, the same below), down 719 RMB or 14.2% from the end of last year. Among them, the price index of building materials was 4,205 RMB, down 13.0% year-on-year; The sheet price index was 4,375 RMB, down 14.9% year-on-year; The profile price index was 4,317 RMB, down 15.7% year-on-year; The price index of pipes was 4842 RMB, down 15.5% year-on-year.
From the annual average, it also shows a downward trend. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Network, the national comprehensive steel price of Lange Steel in 2022 is 4,726 RMB, which is 719 RMB lower than that of the previous year, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%. From the shock range, the peak value of comprehensive steel price index of Lange Steel appeared on April 6, 2022, with a price of 5,451 RMB; The valley value appeared on November 1st, and the price was 4,069 RMB, with the fluctuation range of peak and trough as high as 1,382 RMB, which was 637 RMB narrower than that in 2021 (the amplitude was 2,019 RMB).