Prediction: double focus leads the rise! Steel price requirement ....

Steel price forecast for tomorrow
Today, the disk is still in the rhythm of callback. First of all, Shuangjiao took the lead in rebounding slightly from the futures disk, which played a supporting role in the iron ore (864, 6.50, 0.76%), thread and other varieties that had fallen and broken. Recently, the contradiction between reality has been enlarged, and the strong expectation has turned to weak reality, and the direction is clear. But the question is, have the macro expectations been completed so far? Is the market adjustment in place? Keep looking down ...

First, the steel market has the following influencing factors.
1. In January, the credit supply of many banks was accelerated.
The latest data shows that the credit growth rate of large banks and some joint-stock banks in January was the highest in three years. Among them, manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, green finance and rural revitalization led the growth of loans.

2. Powell's latest talk: I didn't know the non-agricultural association was so strong.
At 01:40 Beijing time on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed at the Washington Economic Club to respond to the uproar caused by last week's non-farm payrolls report. With the non-agricultural data exceeding expectations last Friday, the fear of a strong interest rate hike has come back again, causing a shudder in the capital market.

3, the national engineering project return to work rate of 38.4%.
Centennial Construction Network investigated 12,220 projects in China, and the rate of project resumption in China was 38.4%, up 27.9 percentage points from the previous period and down 12.6 percentage points from February 17th, 2022 (the 17th day of the first month).

4. China Steel Association: In late January, the social inventory of steel in the sample warehouse was 11.58 million tons.
According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, in late January, the social inventory of five kinds of steel in 21 cities was 11.58 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 24.7%, and the inventory increased significantly; An increase of 4.06 million tons or 54.0% over the beginning of the year; An increase of 1.95 million tons or 20.2% over the same period of last year.
Second, the spot market.
Rebar (4074, -2.00, -0.05%): stable and weak.
At present, the rebar library is 6,918,300 tons, up 904,300 tons from the previous week, up 15.04%, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, merchants have returned to the market one after another to quote, and the downstream construction sites have started one after another, and the demand for terminals has started to pick up. The continuous downward drive is insufficient, and the cost support is also there. The continuous decline will also limit the enthusiasm of steel mills to resume production and reduce the supply pressure. It is expected that the short-term rebar price will increase steadily.
Hot coil (4141, -8.00, -0.19%): mixed.
After the Lantern Festival, businesses basically arrived at their posts to wait for production, and the speed of resuming production at the downstream of the terminal accelerated. Most businesses maintained normal inventory levels, mainly digesting inventory. At present, the situation of steel mills taking orders is general, and the price of lock orders is lowered in part to promote the transaction. Recently, the spot price has mostly followed the adjustment of the disk price, which has boosted the market mentality considering the shock and rise of this issue. It is expected that the price of hot coils will rise slightly tomorrow.
Medium plate: main and stable tone
Due to the previous market downturn and cautious demand, there was a backlog of orders. Now, with the continuous boost of snails, the overall atmosphere of the market has improved, merchants are actively chasing up, and the willingness to ship on rallies is strong, and the transactions are concentrated at a low level. In terms of steel mills, the recent low-level orders for steel mills are relatively good, which supports the bottom of the market. Merchants replenish stocks on dips, and it is expected that the market price of medium-sized plates will fluctuate upward in the short term.
Strip steel: main and stable adjustment
Today, the spot price has been raised by 10-20 yuan/ton, with a small volume of transactions and some downstream replenishment at low prices. At present, the order pressure of steel mills is not great, and the steel strip inventory is still at a high level to digest expectations. With the downstream steel mills returning to work and production in the later period, there is room for demand or storage, and it is expected that the short-term price or shock will become stronger.
Profile: steady and falling.
Futures are on the rise, manufacturers' shipments have improved, and market resources have not yet arrived in large quantities. The main consumption is still based on resources years ago. At present, the profit of steel mills is not good, and the enthusiasm for increasing production in the short term is average. The degree of demand fulfillment still needs to be observed. It is expected that the price of profiles will be mainly adjusted within a narrow range tomorrow.
Tubing: the main stability falls.
At present, there are two main factors affecting the market. First, although the demand has gradually recovered, the overall transaction is still weak. Second, the downstream resumption of work in some areas is still lagging behind due to the cold weather. However, the current market price is close to the cost price years ago, so the possibility of a subsequent plunge is very small. The large-scale resumption of production after the holiday will slowly drive demand, and it is expected that the pipe will be adjusted within a narrow range tomorrow.
Third, the raw material market
Billet: Temporary stable operation
The social inventory of billets is high, and the operating mentality of manufacturers is pessimistic. The purchase of billets is still dominated by low prices, and the performance of billet straight hair is average, and the overall sales pressure is great. However, considering the profit loss of billet factories, the bottom of billet prices is supported, and it is expected that billet prices will stabilize in the short term.
Iron ore: the main stable decline
Affected by the weakening of the current price in the foreign ore period, the market quotation was slightly lowered by 5-10 yuan, while the steel mills took a small amount of goods. Due to the high cost of raw materials and low willingness to lose money at low prices, the overall trading volume was weak. At present, buyers are holding the mentality of keeping prices down and waiting for the market outlook. Another news is that the acceptance of resumption of work is being carried out in an orderly manner, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of resumption of production in the short term. It is expected that the mine market will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Coke (2737, -61.00, -2.18%): It runs stably.
With the price of raw coal of some varieties falling, the cost support of coke is weakened, and the steel price is falling, and the profitability is declining. The purchasing of coke is more cautious, focusing on purchasing on demand, and some steel mills still have the will to suppress the price of coke. It is expected that the coke market will continue to run weakly and steadily in the short term.
Scrap steel: the main steady increase
Although independent EAF steel enterprises started construction one after another, most of them were on the verge of loss, while the scrap inventory of long-process steel enterprises was at a low level. Due to the cost pressure, long-process steel enterprises were cautious in purchasing and only made limited replenishment. Recently, the scrap steel market in some areas has been weakly adjusted, and the price continues to rise with insufficient motivation. The overall performance of the scrap steel market is high expectations and low reality. It is expected that the short-term scrap steel market will stabilize its operation.
Pig iron: the main steady rise
With the rise of pig iron price, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high-priced resources, low purchasing enthusiasm and limited room for pig iron price increase. At present, the cost of raw materials is still high, and the price of pig iron is still supported, but the recovery of downstream demand is slow, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the willingness of enterprises to adjust prices is not high. It is expected that the pig iron market will wait and see tomorrow.
Fourth, comprehensive views
With the release of risks, steel prices are not motivated to continue to fall under the loss of steel mills. Especially under the winter storage cost of steel mills and blast furnace cost, the expected high valuation has been squeezed out, and the probability of further decline is relatively small. The superposition of double coke drives the overall disk to rebound, and the production willingness of steel enterprises may be affected to some extent under the condition of their own low profits. The support at the bottom of steel prices is strong, and it is expected that steel prices will rise steadily and moderately tomorrow, with a range of 10-30 yuan.
Decision-making suggestion: Market cost, support behavior and thinking about rising psychology all make it more difficult for the market to continue to fall, and the space below is relatively limited. You can take the goods in batches and in moderation, pursue high cautiously and operate steadily.
"China Steel Network" only provides reference and does not constitute any investment and application suggestions. "China Steel Network" has the final right to interpret this statement.